Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Patterns of Wildfire Susceptibility in Queen Elizabeth National Park (QENP) - Uganda

Abstract

This study determined the variability of wildfire susceptibility in QENP in space and time. QENP is a protected area in Western Uganda. MODIS and VIIRS data for a 6-and-a-half year-period from January 2015- June 2021 was obtained to create an inventory of past fires. From these fires, spatial and temporal patterns were derived using exploratory spatial data analyses. Weights of Evidence (WOE), a Bayesian form of statistical modelling was used to determine the relationship between fires and wildfire conditioning factors, as well as model wildfire susceptibility. Results of the study showed that the occurrence of wildfires within the study area was varied seasonally. 61% of the fires were observed to occur in the first dry season of the year while 31% of the fires were observed to occur in the second dry season. Among the wildfire conditioning factors, altitude, NDVI and proximity to lakes indicated the highest correlation with the occurrence of fires. This was attributed to physiographic influence, water stress in vegetation and socio-economic activities of the fishing villages around the lakes respectively. From the derived wildfire susceptibility maps, varying levels of wildfire susceptibility were determined. 19% and 20% of the study area were classified with very high and high susceptibility respectively. The remaining 61% of the study area was covered by moderate, low and very low susceptibility. The study results provided vital findings about the seasonal patterns of wildfire occurrence, factors influencing the occurrence of wildfires and the locations most susceptible to wildfires. This information will enable managers to allocate fire management resources optimally, to efficiently mitigate against wildfires within QENP.

Keywords: Wildfires, Wildfire Susceptibility, Weights of Evidence, QENP